My partner and I first broached the possibility that we might need to flee the country last summer. After election day, we began that preparation in earnest.
There’s a lot we don’t know. The incoming administration has threatened to do a lot of terrible things to transgender people; withholding medication; legislative erasure; forced detransition; mass incarceration; extermination. Many of these things, I’d want to stay and fight through. Others would make daily life impossible or unbearable.
We definitely agreed these categories existed, but I realized we had never discussed which was which. It was a difficult subject to be honest about; neither of us wanted to be responsible for making a decision that hurt the other. If I asked her to fight with me, she might be killed. If she asked me to leave with her, I’d be dependent on her work visa, isolated from anyone I knew. How can you meaningfully consent to either scenario? Nobody really teaches you how to navigate something like this.
Meanwhile, my partner was also struggling to explain to her company— to her cisgender, straight leadership— under which conditions we would be forced to evacuate. Corporations like predictability; are you leaving, or aren’t you? None of this if stuff. Either it’s bad enough for you to get on an emergency flight right now, or you’re overreacting and we don’t want to hear about it ever again.
But we aren’t overreacting. Several powerful people with the means and motivation to harm us have said that they are going to do so after a specific date. Maybe they’ll change their mind; that’d be great. I’d absolutely love that. Its easy for you to gamble on it, but if we choose incorrectly, we die.
Plus, for many of her peers this was the first they were learning about any of these issues. Paradoxically, while trans people are in the news a lot as objects or abstract matters of policy, the substance of our struggle is rarely reported on. Her boss didn’t realize things were this bad. I thought we were talking about being misgendered, or maybe someone saying something rude to you in an elevator. Once they were up to speed, they usually agreed that what we were concerned about (and what we were asking for) was reasonable.
We’d just have to explain it again, to their boss this time. And maybe their boss’s boss?
Great, okay, I can see where this is going.
To solve both problems at once, and save my partner the repeated labor, I decided to make a list. Here’s what I’m afraid of; what are you afraid of? What sort of reporting did I anticipate engaging in? What might the consequences be? How many Scovilles of spicy bullshit are we prepared to engage in to disrupt the system, and for how long?
We wrote down every scenario, read through them together line by line, and had an honest discussion about what we’d want or need. We summarized the worst case outcomes, sanitized it of gallows humor so corporate-types could swallow it, and she brought it to HR.
The exercise took a couple of hours to complete, but it was time well spent. We learned a lot about each other’s needs, and set clear expectations for the amount of risk we’re comfortable taking. It turns out that— had we said nothing— we were both prepared to over-compensate in prioritizing the other’s safety and happiness. We feel more in control, having a plan, and we’ve given the company what it needs to understand what’s happened if we go off the grid in a few weeks. Now we can focus on other things.
Speaking for myself, I am no longer afraid. Instead, I am angry; I am determined; I am organized; and I am dangerous.
Afterwards, my girlfriend ended up sharing the final product with a few of her friends. They found it helpful, and asked to share it, too. Apparently a lot of queer and trans people are struggling with this same uncertainty right now. Struggling to start this conversation with loved ones. Struggling to make their blissfully unaware relatives understand, or to convince their colleagues that they’re worthy of support.
We’re all doing the same work, over and over again.
So I thought I’d make it available for anyone here. It’s also available as a standalone markdown file, if you’d prefer to share it without my editorializing.1
I hope it helps someone.2
# Should I Stay or Should I Go Now 🎵
This document is a safety plan. Its purpose is to establish firm boundaries and to outline under which circumstances we will flee the country, or otherwise engage in direct-action shenanigans.
_____________________________________________________________________
## Format
- Description of the thing we're worried about
- Nuance: **Response**
- Nuance: **Response**
### Response Options
- Evacuate Overnight
- Move ASAP
- Endure It
- Stay and Fight
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
## TL;DR: We Need to Flee If
1.
2.
3.
4.
_____________________________________________________________________
## Scenarios
### Healthcare
- An explicit, federal ban on hormone replacement therapy for adults...
- ...is proposed via legislation?
- ...is passed as federal law?
- ...is enforced extralegally via executive order?
- An explicit, federal ban on hormone replacement therapy for minors...
- ...is proposed via legislation?
- ...is passed as federal law?
- ...is enforced extralegally via executive order?
- Obtaining HRT is rendered functionally impossible via indirect means (FDA rescheduling shenanigans, use of the Comstock Act, etc)...
- ...is proposed via legislation?
- ...is passed as federal law?
- ...is enforced extralegally via executive order?
- Does the availability of gray-market alternatives change our answer?
- If our state circumvents federal interference (see: California producing their own insulin), does this change our answer?
- Use of Medicaid for transgender people is forbidden.
- If HRT becomes more expensive, but doctors can still prescribe it:
- If doctors stop providing it entirely in order to comply:
- The Affordable Care Act is modified...
- ...repealing it entirely?
- ...to exclude gender-affirming care?
- The government explicitly demands medical records of people who have transitioned, or changed gender markers on documents...
- ...at a state level?
- ...in our state, specifically?
- ...at the federal level?
- HIPAA privacy guidance covering abortion access, HRT prescription, etc, is rescinded.
- New NIH administration begins publishing "breaking research" that being transgender is dangerous...
- ...but they're clearly just being petty about it? (ie no policy changes or accelerated media coverage)
- ...as a pretext for physical or legislative violence?
_____________________________________________________________________
### Human Rights Topics
- The federal government erases the existence and/or rights of queer folks (Bostock v Clayton, Title VII/Title IX revisions, via executive order, etc).
- Supreme Court schedules hearing?
- Supreme Court returns issue back to the states?
- If anti-discrimination laws based on gender identity are struck down as a class of law?
- The US government begins reverting names or gender markers on official documentation...
- At a federal level? (Passports, social security, etc)?
- At a state level other than our own?
- In our state?
- The US government bars *future* changes to official documentation.
- At a federal level? (Passports, social security, etc)?
- ~~At a state level other than our own?~~ This has unfortunately already happened.
- In our state?
- Federal government passes legislation defining "sex at birth".
- Federal funding withheld from states that treat trans folks like humans (via withholding FEMA aid, infrastructure funding, etc) in order to coerce compliance...
- ...and our state continues defying it anyway?
- ...and our state caves?
- LGBTQ+ right to marriage is revoked or previous marriages are annulled...
- ...at a federal level?
- ...in states other than our own?
- ...in our state?
- Banning transgender people from the military (again)...
- ...is proposed via legislation?
- ...is passed as federal law?
- ...is enforced extralegally via executive order?
- Banning transgender people from specific careers (teacher, librarian, etc)...
- ...is proposed via legislation?
- ...is passed as federal law?
- ...is enforced extralegally via executive order?
- ...is passed by states other than our own?
- ...is in our state?
- Banning transgender people from public life...
- via bathroom bills?
- via women's sports?
- via Jim-Crow era segregationist policy?
- Lynchings
- ...begin in other states.
- ...begin in our area.
- Criminalization of being transgender...
- ...is proposed via legislation?
- ...is passed as federal law?
- ...is enforced extralegally via executive order?
- Classifying being transgender as pornographic or obscene...
- ...is proposed via legislation?
- ...is passed as state law?
- ...is passed as federal law?
- ...is enforced extralegally via executive order?
- Classifying being transgender as mental illness...
- ...because they just want us to be sad when we read the DSM?
- ...and someone is actually institutionalized for it?
- Use of concentration camps (either explicit death or work camps, or through mass detention of residents without cause) for *any* community.3
- Rumors of construction?
- Verified construction?
- Mass deportations begin.
- "Right to Discriminate" codified into law for...
- ...commercial services?
- ...doctors and other healthcare?4
- ...housing?
- ...employment?
- Christianity is codified as the national religion.
- Freedom of the press scenarios:
- Legislation passes which diminishes freedom of the press, or ability to conceal identity of sources:
- If prominent journalists are being disappeared ("Where's Anderson Cooper?"):
- Localized police harassment:
- Vigilante heat (Chaya Raichik doxes Val personally or something):
- Military crackdowns on protests, or making protesting illegal.
- Ban on DEI programs
- Nationalized version of right-wing book bans in Florida, "Don't Say Gay" laws?
- Gender policy council dissolved?
- Executive branch postpones or suspends elections and/or violates presidential term limits?
- Alt-Right hate mobs mobilize in our area (see: Charlottesville)
- What do we do if one of us gets hatecrime'd?
- Does the answer change whether it's you, or I?
_____________________________________________________________________
### Matters of Public Sentiment, & Signals of Impending Genocide
- We wake up and see a slur painted on our door.
- Mass media advocates for genocide of any marginalized group.
- Without legal provocation, businesses or organizations begin to deny entry to any marginalized group.
- Sustained police harassment / stalking for any reason other than journalist intimidation.
- Queer businesses specifically targeted for vandalism.
- Trans people, or US citizens more broadly, start having travel restricted by other countries.
_____________________________________________________________________
## These Things Are Already Happening
**You are not overreacting.**
- At the last CPAC, the Trump administration explicitly called for the "eradication" of transgender people. <https://www.hrc.org/press-releases/human-rights-campaign-extremists-at-cpac-laid-bare-hatred-at-root-of-vile-legislation-targeting-trans-people>
- The Heritage Foundation's "Project 2025: Mandate for Leadership" outlines many of the scenarios on this list. <https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf>
- Trump attempted to distance himself from the project, denying any affiliation. This was a lie. <https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/22/us/politics/project-2025-trump-heritage-foundation.html>
- After the election, he promptly appointed its authors to his cabinet. <https://apnews.com/article/trump-project-2025-administration-nominees-843f5ff20131ccba5f056e7ccc5baf23>
- His immediate orbit admits this was always the intent, because they cannot keep their mouths shut. <https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2024/11/project-2025-is-the-agenda-trump-what-is-trump-plan-after-win-steve-bannon/>
- The "Protect Children's Innocence" Act aims to eliminate gender affirming-care through a combination of direct bans and withholding of federal funding. <https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3882637-marjorie-taylor-greene-takes-aim-at-gender-affirming-care-for-trans-youth/>
- It is already a *misdemeanor* for us to use the bathroom anywhere in Florida. <https://www.aclufl.org/en/know-your-rights/know-your-rights-floridas-public-restroom-changing-facility-ban>
- Ohio just passed a first-of-its-kind bathroom ban.
- <https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/ohio-passes-sweeping-college-trans>
- <https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/governor-dewine-signs-trans-bathroom>
- Florida prohibits transgender people from being teachers via indirect legislation. <https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/florida-ban-teachers-using-preferred-pronouns-blocked-by-judge-2024-04-10/>
- Immediately after the election of congresswoman Sarah McBride, Republicans implemented a new bathroom ban just for her. <https://apnews.com/article/sarah-mcbride-speaker-johnson-transgender-bathroom-f3943e1b3b2dc9c8d62d2ba6660aaf91>
- Nancy Mace, who had previously feigned concerns over "safety", later says the quiet part out loud. In an interview with Newsmax, she admits she is offended by the prospect a "man in a skirt" could be her equal, and claims being trans is a mental illness. <https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/nancy-mace-its-offensive-that-sarah>
- Mace went on to call a group of transgender protesters "trannies", and taunted them through a bullhorn. She took particular glee in the knowledge that those being arrested would be unlikely to be able to afford a lawyer, and was proud enough of her stunt to post it with full subtitles to social media, where it remains as of writing despite being textbook hate speech. <https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2024/12/nancy-mace-slur-transgender-bathroom-bill.html>
- Texas AG Ken Paxton has already requested the DMV and medical records of transgender people, and may be making a list.
- <https://www.texastribune.org/2022/12/14/ken-paxton-transgender-texas-data/>
- <https://www.texastribune.org/2023/12/21/texas-attorney-general-trans-seattle-childrens/>
- <https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-general-ken-paxton-sues-el-paso-doctor-prescribing-dangerous-gender-transition-drugs>
- <https://apnews.com/article/seattle-hospital-texas-records-paxton-e1d308835657c40e2e176d7f11d7f749>
- Several states already prohibit (or are attempting to revert) changes to name and gender on official documents. <https://apnews.com/us-news/texas-gender-ken-paxton-general-news-4cdc4a9d4f6fbf4bf7853240b21209ff>
- In 2022, Helen Joyce of The Economist called for "reducing the number of transgender people". <https://www.thepinknews.com/2022/06/03/helen-joyce-transgender-lgbtq/>
- Fox News has already advocated for extrajudicial murder of transgender people.
- <https://www.foxnews.com/video/6324164359112>
- <https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tucker-carlson-trans-movement-targeting-christians>
- Queer communities of color are being threatened with detention and "re-education" via concentration camps following Trump's election. <https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/lgbtq-latino-communities-targeted-deportation-reeducation-texts-fbi-rcna180624>
- This morning, a bill which restricts healthcare access for transgender service members passed the house. Despite being a Republican initiative, a disturbing number of Democrat representatives were happy to capitulate. <https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2024/12/house-passes-ndaa-bill-restricting-military-families-from-getting-trans-healthcare/>
- Linda McMahon, an anti-LGBTQ think tank leader with absolutely no relevant experience, has been nominated by Trump to run the Department of Education. That think tank, the America First Policy Institute, seeks to erase queer students from classrooms and roll back civil rights. <https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2024/12/linda-mcmahon-will-support-donald-trumps-transphobia-in-the-department-of-education/>
- The Supreme Court was largely unsympathetic to arguments that Tennessee's gender-affirming care ban was unconstitutional. They are expected to uphold the ban, providing a green light for states to follow suit. Expect this to occur next summer when the ruling is released. <https://apnews.com/live/supreme-court-transgender-care-updates>
- Florida state prisons are forcibly detransitioning their inmates. Let's not mince words about it, this is a form of torture. https://www.themarshallproject.org/2024/12/10/new-florida-prison-policy-on-trans-health-care-like-conversion-therapyIt occurs to me that most families in America are not spending their Thursday nights this way. They are not planning when or how they might escape. They are not writing contingencies for legislative violence, or updating their wills. The majority of them are worried about whether their taxes will go up. Whether eggs will become marginally more expensive.
Meanwhile, I am packing a bug-out bag.
Meanwhile, I am purchasing a gun.
Meanwhile, I am checking the air in my tires. I am collecting my identifying documents, my pet’s vaccination records. I am slashing bills. I am hoarding medicine.
I am holding a framed photograph that I’ve been meaning to hang for ages, and wondering, why even bother? Because I don’t know if I’ll still live here in thirty days.
We are not worried about the same things.
We do not live in the same America.
- Update: Thank you to Rylie for your help with formatting! ↩︎
- Depending on where you live, you might be worried about different things. In the interests of opsec, I have also removed all of our specific answers. But there were some funny ones in there. Comedy is just how I cope. ↩︎
- This one will probably be more straightforward for you. As a journalist I do intend to run toward certain fires. ↩︎
- This question is really interesting, because almost all hospitals in this area are explicitly owned by Catholic organizations, and are already in the habit of denying health care to transgender people (whether that care is gender confirming or not). The ones that aren’t are systematically overcrowded, so we can’t guarantee we won’t be flown to a facility which will deny us care while unconscious and thus unable to explain why they shouldn’t do that. ↩︎